Thursday, June 19, 2014
Market Outlook
Now that the June Fed meeting is done, focus will turn to geopolitical events and earnings. I see a choppy summer market, sp could drift up to 2k, or down to 1895; should be in that range unless a clear catalyst emerges. note that a 100 point range is only 5% now, vs 10% when the sp was at 1k. Interesting magazine covers this week - the economist has amazon.com going to mars, and time magazine has "the end of iraq."
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I was listening to a NPR Planet Money last week, and they were saying similar things, especially noting the VIX "fear index' recent lows (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#symbol=%5EVIX;range=5y) He made a good point, that we seem to always underestimate "out of analysis-scope" shocks. Rumsfield's unknown unknowns.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm just getting paranoid, but I'm starting to find these calm, sideways, times as merely the overture to next next bubble/crisis; jaws theme playing softly in background.
Yeah, volatility always returns, it's just a matter of when.
ReplyDeleteSeasonality is one factor, driven by underlying forces including propensity for holidays, college tuition bills, and perhaps lack or air conditioning in desert areas.
ReplyDeleteAverage Monthly Performance Since 1971
Return in January has been 1.14%
Return in February has been -0.1%
Return in March has been 1.18%
Return in April has been 1.49%
Return in May has been 0.14%
Return in June has been -0.02%
Return in July has been 0.96%
Return in August has been -0.01%
Return in September has been -0.52%
Return in October has been 0.74%
Return in November has been 1.5%
Return in December has been 1.7%